Hillary's Running for President...in 2012.

There can be no doubt about it now. Hillary knows the math as well as anyone. She is unlikely to pass Senator Obama in the pledged delegate count, and is not likely to improve on her performances in Michigan or Florida if there is a revote in those states.

The means by which Hillary is campaigning is, in my view, turning off a lot of superdelegates and party regulars who think she is engaged in a scorched Earth campaign to gain the nomination and then run a 50% plus 1 electoral vote strategy in the Fall.

Hillary must know her odds of winning this year are extremely long. She must also know that the only posisble way to win, would be to go nuclear on Obama (as she is doing), and hope like hell Obama screws up.

She must also know that such a strategy is high risk for the fall campaign and is likely to cost her the general election by alienating Obama supporters - regardless of whether Obama himself joins her ticket.

So, what is she doing?

I think she is running for 2012. I think she knows that if Obama gets the nomination this year without HIllary driving up his negatives and legitimizing GOP atatcks on him, he will probably win in the Fall and be a two term President.

And even if Hillary wanted to run again in 2016, she would not necessarily be the presumptive nominee. That designation would fall -- most likely -- on Obama's Vice President. So Hillary would not have a clear path to the nomination even then.

Hillary, of course, would be 68 years old in 2016. The same age as Ronald Reagan when he ran in 1980 -- and Reagan was the oldest person ever elected President.

Hillary's only real shot at being President is to get the nomination this year -- or sabotage Barack Obama's chances to win the Presidency this year, and run again in 2012.

If Obama loses against McCain, Hillary will be perfectly positioned to run again in four years. She will have the money, the organization, four more years of experience, and the argument that she would have beaten McCain whereas Obama failed.

And, there is a good chance McCain may not run for reelection in 2012 given his age. So Hillary may not even be running against an incumbant President.

And who in the Democratic party would have the ability to challenge her for the nomination in 2012? Obama would have gone down to defeat in a strong Democratic year.

And there are no bright and rising Democratic stars on the horizon who could legitimately give Hillary a challenge. Mark Warner from Virginia? Maybe.

Jim Webb? Kathleen Sebelius?

The only person who really could is Al Gore.

And if he ran again in 2012, that would set up another epic nomination battle. But I think Gore missed his moment.

In any case, I thik Hillary, legitimately, would rather see Obama lose if she cannot be the nominee. Oh, she'll endorse him. She'll work for his candidacy. But she will have poisoned the well so much that (she hopes) he will lose to McCain in the fall.