Poll Proof Dems Won't Defect to McCain

Lord all mighty....have the pundits and Democrats gone coo coo over recent polls showing that up to 30% of Obama or Hillary supporters will defect to John McCain in the fall election -- if their favored candidate does not get the Democratic nomination.

But, those very same polls tell us something quite different.

The same polls, which comprise the same sample, and same people, show that when push comes to shove -- Democrats will not defect to McCain.

Look at the head-to-head matchups between Obama vs McCain and Clinton vs McCain.

They are almost dead even.

So, while people express furstration when they are asked whether they will vote for McCain if their candidate loses the Democratic nomination -- they actually come home only a few minutes later when the stark choice of McCain or a Democrat is put before them directly.

I think these head-to-head matchup polls are far more telling than the polls showing defections to McCain.

People will come home. It will be rough for a while, but I expect the party will rally around the nominee no matter who it is (Obama) -- and then go strong into the fall as a unified party.

This, you see, is the high water mark for McCain. He is getting almost no negative press, is not being attacked in any sinificant way by the Democratic nominee, and the two Democrats are pummeling each other.

AND, as many as a third of each Democrat's supporters say they might vote for McCain if their candidate is not the nominee. Yet, despute all of that, McCain is EVEN with both Democrats in the tracking polls!

McCain has nowhere to go but down.

I'm not worried.

•  Well...

  I completely agree with you that Mccain's stregthn is the polls is artificial--product of getting a free ride for all these months. But I think the reason that we are tied with Mccain is that we get more Independents that then make up for the defected Democrats. Ideally, by november, Obama will have won back some of the Democratic support, while keeping his edge among Independents.

  by jenontheshore on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 07:02:46 AM PDT

•  These polls are nonsense.

  They are probably truly reflect sentiment in a heated primary, but people coalesce and regroup for general elections.  You probably would have got similar results for the Rs in early February.

  by bugscuffle on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 07:05:18 AM PDT

  •  Don't worry.

    As the economy continues to sink, so will McCain's support - big time!

    by Randall Sherman on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 07:16:26 AM PDT

    •  And as Iraq continues to fall apart,

      I saw Joe Scarborough this morning furiously peddling the notion that McCain's "We could be in Iraq for 50 years" comment was somehow a democratic invention.  They know that the continued deterioration there will hurt McCain badly.

      by MadRuth on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 07:23:32 AM PDT

•  All this talk represents -- at most

  an attempt to take a snapshot of the moment.

  It has little bearing on the circumstances that will exist come November.

  by livosh1 on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 07:07:43 AM PDT

•  No way McCain can win

  Imagine a debate with between him and Obama. Just shut your eyes and imagine it.

  This is a change election. The change candidate will win. The vast majority of people want out of Iraq NOW. And Obama is taller.

  by Grassroots Mom on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 07:08:45 AM PDT

  •  Obama's also left-handed.

    http://www.infoplease.com/...

    by Hesiod on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 07:10:30 AM PDT

  •  The tallies have it. lol.

    Mr. Economy can't make change.  That means he'll turn up short and have to pay it back.  It's like they've run Mr. Ed against Mr. Rogers.  

    by rainmanjr on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 07:24:42 AM PDT

•  What if the head-to-head matchups registered the

  disgruntled democrats and still give Obama a slight advantage? It would end up in a landslide, and not just in the electoral college.

  It's pretty safe to assume that most of those democrats who are saying now that they will vote for the mccain will change their tune in before November (unless they proclaim themselves democrats, but aren't). That sort of thing happens every election.

  by power2truth on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 07:10:24 AM PDT

  •  Exactly,,,

    Either DEmocrats are coming home when asked the head-to-head matchup question...or in very very bad news for McCain, he is dead even with either Democrats EVEN THOUGH there are so many Democrats who are defecting to him.

    A situation that, by the time of the election, is sure to reverse.

    McCain has a very tough hill to climb, in my opinion.

    by Hesiod on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 07:11:58 AM PDT

    •  If we assume 50% are and 50% aren't coming home

      for the polls, it's still a lot of extra votes who will in large part come home eventually - as always.

      by power2truth on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 08:49:33 AM PDT

•  In March 2000

  polling had 40%+ of McCain supporters supporting Gore.

  Yeah, that lasted.

  I am still confused as to the Rasmussen polling where 38% of Clinton supporters called for Obama to withdraw.

  I didn't know that they polled Taylor Marsh and Hillaryis44 so often.

  by RBH on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 07:17:30 AM PDT

  •  I think Rass polls ubdercount Obama supporters.

    Kos says they compensate for these problems, but I don't know.

    Rass is a computer generated phone poll. How many college age kids and yong single people are home in the evening, or even have land lines any more?

    It seems to me you are going to oversample older white people in that kind of poll.

    by Hesiod on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 07:30:34 AM PDT

    •  Yeah, probably

      6% of Democrats polled also said that both Clinton and Obama should withdraw.

      Nice to see that John Edwards still has some support out there. ;)

      by RBH on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 07:37:47 AM PDT

•  About time someone said this.

  Thanks for pointing it out, Hesiod.  I've long thought that this threat to remove support of the other candidate is just that...a threat.  In the end, they will grudgingly admit the winner is not so bad and cast their vote for him--uhm, them.
  Though I, after the last 3 weeks, have decided to vote for Nader if our nominee is Hillary.  After her "kitchen sink" strategy, and willingness to destroy the party over her own ambition, I can not support her.  Ever.  She has a lot to learn about life and the Oval Office isn't the place to learn it.  

  by rainmanjr on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 07:21:54 AM PDT

•  What is reality...

  is that polls drive media coverage...people know that so they say things like, if candidate A wins I will vote for the Republican so that it gets reported as MSM news and helps their candidate out...

  by dvogel001 on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 07:26:23 AM PDT

•  If a candidate comes in SECOND place

  and is awarded (steals) the nomination, not voting for that candidate in the general is COMPLETELY DIFFERENT than not voting for a candidate who wins the nomination after COMING IN FIRST place in the contest FOR that nomination.

  No one has suggested Hillary Clinton might get more delegates, more votes and STILL lose the nomination.

  Think about it.

  by PBJ Diddy on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 07:59:02 AM PDT